Americans feel worse about the economy than they have at almost any point on record. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 51.7 in August, down 6.3 percent from July and 11.2 percent below where it stood a year ago.
The reading sits below the first percentile of the index’s history, which dates to the 1940s. It is lower than the index registered at the start of every one of the six recessions since the survey began, and roughly 38 percent below the long-run average of 83.7.
Both components fell. The current conditions measure dropped 5.3 percent to 51.9, and the expectations measure fell 7 percent to 51.5. Survey director Joanne Hsu attributed the decline to continued worry that inflation will stay elevated for the foreseeable future.
The deterioration ran across nearly every group, with sharper declines among older, lower- and middle-income consumers and households that do not own stock. Expectations for business conditions fell about 10 percent for the year ahead and 13 percent for the longer term.
One number moved the other way. Consumers now expect prices to rise 4 percent over the next year, down from 4.2 percent in July and the lowest reading since March, though still high by historical standards. Long-run inflation expectations held at 3.3 percent for a third straight month.
The Conference Board’s separate measure told a similar story with different internals. Its Consumer Confidence Index slipped 0.8 points to 89.4, below the 90.3 forecast. Within it, the Present Situation Index, which measures how people assess current business and job conditions, rose 6.8 points to 121.2, ending a three-month slide. The Expectations Index, covering the next six months, fell 5.8 points to 68.2.
The split between the two Conference Board components points to households that feel their current circumstances are manageable while expecting things to get harder.